Some Further Thoughts On Video Programming Delivery In The Coming Years

As I noted in my prior post, here, there continues to be more splintering of the delivery and viewing of video content these days.

For instance, yesterday's Wall Street Journal ran an article about MTV's trouble with its online sites. Furthermore, the article published a table, sourced by comscore Media Metrix, purporting to show unique visitors to websites last month. Yahoo video was first, notionally, with 21.1 million. Right behind, with 20.1 million, was NewsCorp's MySpace Videos, followed by YouTube with 16.1 million unique visitors. Given my prior comments about Yahoo, I wonder if the July numbers don't represent, as a snapshot of one viewing period, the growth of YouTube to nearly rival Yahoo, as opposed to Yahoo maintaining a continuing lead in this area.

I now wonder whether half of cable's revenues will go away as more consumers find and buy/view content directly on urls via their hi speed data facilities. With destination sites like Youtube, who will need a pre-packaged suite of programming content like Comcast currently has for TV, or is attempting for the internet? And then, we'll probably see cable and telephone company DSL-based content offerings compete each other's prices downward to retain some measure of revenue from these antiquated, pre-packaged content services.

Instead, we'llprobably buy a wireless box which takes the hi speed online signal, directs it with a handheld wireless controller, and displays url-based video on your in-home TV display.

Voila. Goodbye broadcast, and even cable 'TV.' Hello video ubiquity a la carte. Which, by the way, is something the cable industry already admits it doesn't like, won't offer, and on which it will lose money.

Of course, this online a la carte video world does have to be paid for somehow. And it's easy to see what that "somehow" will be. YouTube is allowing advertising on its dedicated channels. Hmm.....a familiar concept. Of course! That's broadcast network TV from the 1950s, updated for today's viewers and technologies. And then, of course, there will probably be direct access to very hot production company sites who will charge via credit card or PayPal to have access to popular 'television-style' serial programming.

I don't know what the arrangements are for the provision of, say, ABC's Lost or Desperate Housewives. But it would seem reasonable that production contracts for serial programming is going to change. Before, it was just about syndication rights and royalties. Now, a good production company with a hot property can air it initially via a network, then go solo after the brand has been built. Or, perhaps they'll just go directly to a YouTube or other online video content concentrator site.

Then again, perhaps a really good production shop will simply secure its own financing via the capital markets. Maybe they'll sign a long-term distribution agreement with YouTube to provide basic cashflow while they develop properties for the online market. The possibilities seem truly too many to contemplate just yet.

I wouldn't want to be the Dolans, or any other cable company/mogul right now.