Thursday, September 14, 2006

Apple Announces the Missing Link

Yesterday, Apple announced its iTV device to stream content to the Apple computer-like box, essentially a video-application digital file storage and management device, wired to a TV's video and audio inputs. As expected, and described in the Wall Street Journal, it will use a home wireless network to receive files from a Mac or PC. It even has a wireless controller, as I expected (ok, who wouldn't, at this point, right?).

Finally, the end game is now in sight for network television, and physical film distribution. This device, and its competitors from various other electronics purveyors, will finally allow consumers to shop for video content online, and download it in custom fashion to their home digital storage devices for play/temporary usage/ownership.

I've opined on this development over the past few months in prior posts like
this one from February. It spells the final draining of value from the network television model, not to mention Blockbuster, and probably even Netflix. It's even possible this could be the next "killer app" in the consumer digital device world which forces massive upgrading of what one still calls "personal computers."

In any event, by June of 2007, the instrument of broadcast and physical video content distribution will be tangibly at hand, for about $300 (again, more or less my expectation of the price point). So, give things a year or so to shake out, and basic models of competitive units should sell for about $250-300.

As I wrote late last month,
here, the less obvious victims of this innocuous little digital box will, I predict, be Verizon, AT&T, and the cable companies. With this final wireless link to what amounts to a digital video server wired to your TV, who needs Comcast's predetermined menu of channels and air times? Just start paying for the content you want, either from a "general store" like iTunes, or Amazon, or, go directly to URLs of the content producers and use your credit card or PayPal.

I am, in any case, quite excited at this new development. Even now, as I finish composing this, I am listening to CNBC's review of the new Microsoft iPod competitor, a type of video/audio file viewing/listening device that wirelessly shares with other users.

The race to market a wide variety of wireless multi-media devices is full on now. The winners and losers will probably include many accidents along the way- unintended casualties, and lucky successes. I'm looking forward to the competition, but I expect that, in the end, this will benefit unbundled, superior producers in every area of the new markets- content, device design, and selective disintermediation of content management.

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