Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Monday on CNBC: The Conflicted Trader

I saw interviews with two 'traders' on CNBC Monday morning which yielded diametrically opposite views

First, Art Cashen, the florid-looking mossback from UBS, said that interest rates and Bernanke govern the market now. Period. Nothing else mattered.

Then a trader for another large broker was similarly questioned. He waffled on every question, giving no solid opinions whatsoever, except to say 'it all comes down to earnings'

So, there you have it. It's all about interest rates. Well, except when it's all about earnings.

Gee- thanks guys. I didn't think about either of these.

Once again, this anecdote of the conflicted floor traders shows how inane talking to brokers is. For the most part, they trade for clients- insitutional managers, other houses, and large private accounts. For the most part, all the brokers really 'know' is instantaneous order behavior.

Of course, they like to personify the 'market' because it adds presumed value and glamor to a business going totally electronic. Seriously, how can "the market" really know or care about the level of a single composit index, and truly behave differently as that level's old, nominally-valued maximum is exceeded?

One thing the piece did demonstrate- it takes different views to make a market, and even interviewing only two brokers already did that.

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