Tuesday, June 03, 2008

The Folly of Corporate Diversification

I've written a handful of posts about diversification. Perhaps the two that I find most important in conveying my core philosophy about diversified companies are found here and here.

Not surprisingly, because it is probably the best known American diversified conglomerate, GE has been the primary subject of those two posts.

However, GE isn't the only American company that is probably overly-diversified. Consider yesterday's sacking of Wachovia's CEO, Ken Thompson. One of Thompson's mistakes, in his rush to make Wachovia larger and faster-growing, was the unwise purchase of Golden West Financial at the top of the real estate boom in 2006.

Now, it appears that Wachovia, like its Charlotte rival, BofA, would have done better simply remaining a large commercial bank without trying to become a major presence in the now-national business of mortgage lending.

Over the past decades, auto makers have bought, then sold: EDS, Hughes, and several financial service companies.

Who knows how much better-managed and -positioned for today's changing, challenging environment GM, Ford and Chrysler would have been, had they not frittered away precious capital and management attention on these diversifications?

Or consider TimeWarner's disastrous merger with AOL. Eventually it destroyed huge amounts of shareholder value. A needless diversification that never truly worked.

Microsoft has grown cumbersome and complicated to understand and manage, judging by their total return performance over the past decade.

When I consider both Microsoft and GE, it seems pretty obvious to me that too broad an assortment of businesses, especially when their commonality is eclipsed by their differences, leads to mediocre total return performances for shareholders.

Who really believes that Microsoft's applications businesses need to share a corporate structure with the games division?

Or that GE's aircraft engine business has a lot of interdependence with its Universal/NBC unit?

What are the odds that executives overseeing these unlikely combinations actually add value that exceeds the costs of their administration?
Look at the nearby price charts for five companies and the S&P500 Index for the past five years.
The monoline companies- Google and Apple- far outperform the diversified ones- GE and Microsoft.
I know there are many reasons to assail this comparison. What I want to show is the huge performance gap between operating models. The focused, largely single-business firms have created far more value for their shareholders in the last half decade than have the two diversified ones.
How can Gates, Ballmer and Immelt possibly excuse such lackluster performance for so long?
I contend that CEOs who collect and 'manage' businesses too many in number, with little inter dependencies, are ineffectively constructing mini-indices of their own. As Microsoft's and GE's performances so clearly demonstrate, at best, they might perform like an index..but with much higher risk.
That's why I have written for years that both GE and Microsoft would benefit their shareholders by splitting their companies into their logical constituent parts. In both cases, their business units are sufficiently large to operate as independent corporations, and would have much more transparency and focus if they did so.
With total return performances like GE's and Microsoft's, it's hard for anyone to argue I'm wrong.
Does any reader know of a legitimate exception to my position? That diversification of corporations is, in today's environment, with deep, broad equity pools, needless and counterproductive for shareholders and managements?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

First of all, GE and Microsoft are very successful companies and a large part of that success can be attributed to diversification. What would have been the outcome if Microsoft had kept to Windows and not ventured into things like Office, Explorer and Hotmail. Gaming industry runs a lot on software and therefore Microsoft may not be all that wrong in taking that path. It is always easy to find faults in hindsight and one should not expect all business ventures to succeed. Moreover their competitors have used diversification too. Sony's playstation came out of radical diversification. Apple has diversified into smart phone and selling music already. There can of course be excesses but from them we cannot conclude that firms should not diversify at all.

C Neul said...

anonymous-

I'm sorry, but every single point you make is wrong.

GE and Microsoft are not, at least any longer, "very successful companies."

Both have total returns well below that of the market, as measured by the S&P return.

Neither has 'succeeded' because of diversification. The concept has, in fact, been their downfall.

By now, Microsoft's shareholders would be better off with each large, self-capitalizing business group spun off so that shareholders could choose which to own.

Apple is not so diversified, because it primarly designs, manufactures and sells application-specific digital processing systems. In one case, ipods, that includes itunes. But they are merely extensions of the concept of application-focused, special-purpose digital processors- music, communications, and data/content (imacs).

Your final comment is so obtuse as to be difficult to know where to start pointing out its errors.

In general, I have found through my propietary research over decades, that diversified companies and conglomerates trail their undiversified competitors in terms of long-term total returns.