Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Tiresome Warren Buffett's Remarks on CNBC

Once again, Warren Buffett is coasting on his reputation. Certainly, his recent performance would not get him the coverage he now enjoys.


For example, last Monday's Wall Street Journal noted that his company, Berkshire Hathaway, barely beat the equity market indices last year, and is "slightly better than the Dow Jones Industrial Average" this year.


The accompanying Yahoo-sourced chart shows Berkshire losing about 25% in the past two years, while the S&P500 Index declined about 45% in the same period.


But is this the performance of, as the Journal wrote,


"The man considered by many to be the greatest investor of all time?"


It further notes that 2008 was his worst year ever. Maybe Warren is losing his touch.

Noted short-seller and fund manager (Seabreeze Partners) Doug Kass wrote in a question to Warren on his all-morning appearance on CNBC yesterday, asking if Buffett's 'buy and hold forever' strategy is not now out of date, as Kass has contended?


Buffett, of course, rambled, sputtered and replied in the manner which he obviously thinks is endearing- that trademark 'aw, shucks' sort of pause and fumbling- that buying good businesses and holding them a long time is still a wise move.


Evidently, Buffett ignores that most people need and want to make money from investments in a consistent manner. And that he has access to deals which the ordinary investor does not, such as loaning Goldman Sachs money on a guaranteed-return basis, with an embedded call option.


If you look closely at the two curves in the chart, you see that virtually all of Buffett's outperformance of the S&P in the past two years occurred between September and December of 2007. After that, Berkshire pretty much has mirrored the index. Meaning that it was a timing phenomenon that allowed him to outperform. It was by no means a consistent, recurring activity.


As I've written prior to this in other posts, such as this one last May, Buffett is more enigma than great investment manager. If he's even that, as I noted in this passage from that post,


"Funny, but actually on point. Is Buffett the portfolio manager of a very large, actively-managed, closed-end portfolio? Rather like, well, GE?

Or is Buffett just another conglomerate CEO?

Either way, I still just don't see the evidence that Buffett has rewarded his investors for most of this decade with superior total returns."

CNBC went for ratings, rather than content, yesterday, when it had Buffett on as a guest for the entire 6-9am timeslot.
Honestly, the guy is now a caricature of himself. He smirks and mumbles platitudes about how, in the long run, America is great and will come back.
As if anyone needs him to tell them that. But CNBC and other news channels played up all the footage they could of Buffett's remark, as if some national grandfather had appeared to soothe the country's nerves. I don't know which was worse, the bleating, plaintiff emails to Buffett, or his seriousness in replying, as if he actually has the power to calm the masses, or knows anything that the rest of us don't.
Personally, I'd prefer someone like John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made a killing last year shorting residential mortgage finance. At least we know he knows how to outperform the market, and will bet on his knowledge.

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