Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Jim Paulsen On CNBC This Morning

Wells Capital Management chief investment officer Jim Paulsen, PhD., was a guest host on CNBC this morning.

When asked about his take on the recession and recovery, Paulsen launched into a spectacularly sunny diatribe about how great the recovery has been. True, his math was a little vague.

For example, he noted the absolute difference between the -6.4% GDP growth in the worst recent quarter and the most recent +2.4% (these may be off by a few tenths of percents), proclaiming that a really great recovery.

Most economists with whom I'm familiar typically compare trough-peak measures to other peak-trough measures.

Not Paulsen.

No, he just marvels at how the trough is negative, the new recent value is positive, so, wow, things are great!

I wondered how he could be getting away with this, because the program's supposed foil for Paulsen was, in fact, another shill.

He's a 'chief equities strategist' at an investment bank. And he agreed with everything Paulsen said.

Then it hit me.....

These guys are on the program to talk their firms' books. You know, talk up viewer interest in equities which, as it happens, both guys' institutions hold. And, in the foil's case, also broker.

You can't say enough about how generous CNBC is to its guests.

Have an equity you hold and want to pump? Why, get on CNBC and be interviewed by Maria Bartiromo. Like Lee Cooperman did for Home Depot almost exactly three years ago.

So what we saw this morning was Paulsen's rather unusual depiction of a hearty, healthy, robust US economy which he confidently predicted would grow normally and fast, just like it has in "every other" recovery. No details. No mention of jobless recoveries which have been the norm since 1982.

Rather, Paulsen wanted to give the clear and strong impression that it's now full speed ahead for equities. Get in there behind Wells' book and make Paulsen proud....and a lot of money, too, by the way.

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