Electronic Trucks Or Cars? Jobs vs. Ballmer On PCs et.al.

The Wall Street Journal's All Things Digital conference played host to an arm's length spat between Steve Jobs and Steve Ballmer concerning the future of personal computers.

Jobs likened PCs to trucks, capable of doing heavy duty tasks, but not as well-suited to single, evolving applications as various newer digital devices, e.g., iPods, iPads, iPhones, etc.

Ballmer, on the other hand, derided Jobs' description and assured everyone that PCs were getting more valuable and individualistic with each passing year. And, for good measure, just in case they weren't, Microsoft was putting Windows on cell phones and tablets, too.

Or, to quote Ballmer directly,

"People are going to be using PCs in greater and greater numbers for many years to come.

Nothing people do on a PC today is going to get less relevant tomorrow. There are usage cases- whether those are done today on PCs or on alternate devices- that are going to grow in popularity."

Maybe so. But let's consider the real core issue- replacement cycles and associated software.

Which do you believe people replace more often- cell phone or laptop/PC? I'm guessing it's their phone.

Ballmer may be correct that people will still use a PC, and those applications done on only a PC, such as finance, spreadsheets, complex word processing, will remain there. But use in greater numbers? Only as youngsters become teens and acquire low-end laptops.

I don't think the number of computers/person is going to rise. And I suspect the average personal laptop age will increase, as well.

Instead, people will focus their energies for new devices and applications on cell phones, tablets and music devices.

As usual, Microsoft's CEO is fighting the last war, desperately clinging to the hope that large-scale software on PCs will continue to maintain Microsoft's value as a company.

I suspect Jobs' perspective on digital device growth rates and usages are more on target.