Friday, March 11, 2011

CNBC's On-Air Staff & Yesterday's Equity Market Sell-Off

US equity markets sold off yesterday. We got that.

But if you watched CNBC after 3PM that afternoon, you saw some priceless comedy featuring Maria Bartiromo's breathlessly asking a guest, to paraphrase,

'We've had a two-year bull market during which some have been calling for this pullback. Calling for it for years. Now we finally get it.'

Two years? Are you kidding me? Someone's been predicting an equity market drop for two years, and yesterday they were suddenly heroes? I'd like to see one of those anchors or reporters try to manage a live portfolio where you weren't allowed to just guess that sometime during the next few years the market may decline. You had to go long or short for real.

Around 3:45PM, the network shifted into high gear with a multi-camera'd navel-gazing session that looked, onscreen, like the old Brady Bunch intro. Among the cognoscenti were the network's own David Faber, Sue Herrera, ex-anchor Ron Insana, a few other staffers I can't recall, and one or two guests. The first few participants, of course, were CNBC talking heads.

Why do you suppose a crew of people whose job is to make every day in the markets seem like the most important day ever would have a clue as to what yesterday's equity market decline implied? Didn't occur to any of the CNBC production staff to arrange participation by some respected portfolio managers or equity strategists, rather than their own largely credential-less crew of reporters and talking heads?

Here's a test. Bartiromo wrung her hands over the day's losses. Others decried the rise in volatility.

Since the market's post-2008 crisis bottom on 9 March, 2009, how many days has the S&P500 Index experienced a loss greater than yesterday's?

The answer appears below, in a table of the 50 worst daily percentage declines since the market's bottom. I've highlighted yesterday in red. It's only the 32nd worst day in two years.

The champ? April 1, 2009, at -4.28%

At -1.89%, yesterday's Index decline didn't even make it into the -2% range, of which there 18 days of such magnitude.

       Date      Level      Return


1 4/20/2009 832.39 -4.28%


2 5/20/2010 1071.59 -3.90%


3 3/30/2009 787.53 -3.48%


4 6/4/2010 1064.88 -3.44%


5 5/6/2010 1128.15 -3.24%


6 2/4/2010 1063.11 -3.11%


7 6/29/2010 1041.24 -3.10%


8 6/22/2009 893.04 -3.06%


9 7/2/2009 896.42 -2.91%


10 7/16/2010 1064.88 -2.88%


11 8/11/2010 1089.47 -2.82%


12 10/30/2009 1036.19 -2.81%


13 5/13/2009 883.92 -2.69%


14 10/1/2009 1029.85 -2.58%


15 8/17/2009 979.73 -2.43%


16 4/7/2009 815.55 -2.39%


17 5/4/2010 1173.6 -2.38%


18 6/15/2009 923.72 -2.38%


19 4/27/2010 1183.71 -2.34%


20 1/22/2010 1091.76 -2.21%


21 9/1/2009 998.04 -2.21%


22 5/11/2009 909.24 -2.15%


23 2/22/2011 1315.44 -2.05%


24 3/27/2009 815.94 -2.03%


25 3/24/2009 806.33 -2.02%


26 4/14/2009 841.5 -2.01%


27 3/20/2009 768.54 -1.98%


28 7/7/2009 881.03 -1.97%


29 10/28/2009 1042.63 -1.95%


30 5/27/2009 893.06 -1.90%


31 1/21/2010 1116.48 -1.89%


32 3/10/2011 1295.11 -1.89%


33 5/14/2010 1135.68 -1.88%


34 1/28/2011 1276.34 -1.79%


35 11/27/2009 1091.49 -1.72%


36 6/1/2010 1070.71 -1.72%


37 8/19/2010 1075.63 -1.69%


38 6/24/2010 1073.69 -1.68%


39 5/21/2009 888.33 -1.68%


40 4/30/2010 1186.68 -1.67%


41 11/16/2010 1178.34 -1.62%


42 4/16/2010 1192.13 -1.61%


43 6/22/2010 1095.31 -1.61%


44 10/19/2010 1165.9 -1.59%


45 3/1/2011 1306.33 -1.57%


46 5/7/2010 1110.88 -1.53%


47 8/30/2010 1048.92 -1.47%


48 8/24/2010 1051.87 -1.45%


49 11/23/2010 1180.73 -1.43%


50 5/18/2010 1120.8 -1.42%

What about volatility? Well, everyone has their favorite measure. By mine, yesterday's volatility value isn't even close to levels that should worry you about a significant, short-selling type of market sell-off. In fact, volatility was more than twice as great while the market rebounded in March of 2009. There were at least two more periods of higher volatility since then.
So before you get all shook up by Bartiromo's breathy rhetoric and anxious tone, never mind her typical loss for words and inability to get her sentences enunciated properly, check the facts.
 
As market hurricanes go, this isn't even a tropical storm yet.

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