More Evidence of Economic Strength 'From the Road'

In this recent post, I discussed the economic evidence I've seen on my road trip that argues against a widespread recession.

In the last week, further evidence reinforces my belief that any recession currently underway in the US is either fairly stealthy, or not occurring in parts of the country that would seem to be candidates for it.

On the drive back from southern West Virginia, we stopped in Morgantown again, for lunch. Quizzing the staff of the restaurant, we learned that traffic this year is no different from last year. No difference due to gasoline prices.

In fact, the hostess remarked that spending was, if anything, up. People are filling restaurants and spending normally. The woman remarked,

'If they want to travel, they're going to travel.'

The major amusement park at which my daughter and I spent a day was as crowded as always. Hotels were full. Upon trying to find a room for an additional night's stay, we had to drive 45 miles away to get a room.

The parking lot of the park was as full as in past years.

Taking a slightly longer perspective, the people I spent time with in West Virginia told me that real estate foreclosures were not abnormally high. Down there, nobody had gotten carried away to begin with.

Two of the guides rather proudly announced that as of next year, they will be totally debt-free. Their purchases of electronics- computers, music players, etc.- have been strong this past year.

What's interesting to me is that these people, who represent a fair chunk of the American economy, simply behave far differently than the highly-leveraged consumers on both coasts.

Do the people who guided us raft fishing in West Virginia work several jobs each year? Yes. They always have. And they are not badly off.

Do they have health care? I doubt it- at least, not provided. They are entrepreneurs. Their sense of self-responsibility for their economic welfare is notable. Not one of them complained that some local or state agency wasn't finding them work or providing for them.

Rather, they use their considerable skills to do jobs that pay well, if are not always attractive to others. One guide has laid gas pipelines through the southern US swamps and donned "Gamma jammies" to clean up nuclear sites.

It's just a completely different picture of human economic behavior than you see in the major media. Self-reliance, restraint in consumption, a strong sense of saving for planned activities, and moderation in all things.

None of these people bought and flipped houses recently. But one of the guides, who works several jobs throughout the year, owns at least two rental properties, plus 7 acres on which he plans to build his last, largest home. Substantially by himself, of course. His child goes to private school and has a horse.

Does this sound economically disadvantaged or like an economic recession?

Not to me.

If you think stereotypically and assume that states with less income/capita and lower educational levels are therefore in economic trouble right now, think again.

Could it be that the better-educated, socially upwardly-mobil members of our economy are the ones in trouble, because they simply have lost their moorings regarding prudent personal economic behavior?

I'll write some thoughts about that in conjunction with the banking/real estate mess tomorrow.