Wednesday, May 12, 2010

The FCC Puts US Communications Technology Growth In Jeopardy

Nothing scares off investment capital like uncertainty. Whether measured by higher required rates of return or lower 'certainty equivalents,' uncertainty of return of capital makes projects less attractive.

Thus, the FCC's recent second attempt to regulate the internet is likely to slow or halt growth of that important communications tool and the economic benefits it would otherwise create.

Having watched Congress rebuff 'net neutrality' earlier this year, the FCC is trying again by unilaterally declaring that the internet may be regulated under the 1996 Telecommunications Act.

Noting the year of that act, one already realizes that the Act came just at the dawn of the internet's rapid growth in the late 1990s. The notorious "dot com" bubble.

So, not only did the Act not even foresee developments only a few years hence, but, now, over ten years later, it is most assuredly out of date, drafted, as it was, with the intent of regulating telephony.

Having worked for ATT years ago, in the early years of my business career, I can attest that the last ten years of growth of internet-related services is beyond all comparison to growth in telephony for the last thirty. Once telephony went to wireless, the rest of the changes were of magnitude, more than type.

Other than that, companies like Verizon have only introduced innovation by expanding outside of voice communications to look more like cable companies.

The FCC's unilateral power play is sure to have very negative consequences for one vibrant sector of the US economy.

Think of how many new initiatives, perhaps along the lines of Facebook, Google, or the thousands of apps for iPhones, will now be choked off by uncertain returns to capital as the FCC clouds the business operating environment for such services.

It's bad enough that our government uses taxpayer money to prop up old, antiquated and unproductive sectors like auto manufacture. To now turn to the other end of the spectrum and move to limit growth in new economic sectors will surely lead to a moribund US economy in the not too distant future.

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